Economic Highlights of 2025
Vietnam is projected to have the highest GDP growth in Asia in 2025
In 2025, Vietnam is projected by many international institutions to achieve the highest GDP growth in Asia, with the World Bank estimating a rate of 6.6%. Other foreign forecasts also affirm Vietnam’s strong performance: Standard Chartered (7.5%), HSBC (8%), ADB and UOB (6.7% and 7.5%), all reflecting highly positive growth prospects. Inflation is expected to remain stable at around 3.3–3.8%.
Real economic growth in the first three quarters reached 7.85%, with balanced expansion across agriculture, industry – construction and services. Industrial production in the first 10 months increased by 9.2%, with growth recorded in all 34 provinces.
Vietnam’s economy in 2025 is estimated to reach 510 billion USD, ranking 32nd in the world. GDP per capita is projected at around 5,000 USD, a sharp increase compared with 2020 and placing the country in the upper-middle-income group. From 1986 to 2024, GDP expanded nearly 106-fold, while GDP per capita grew more than 63 times, lifting Vietnam out of the low-income group in 2008 and keeping it among the fastest-growing economies in ASEAN.
During the 2021–2025 period, Vietnam achieved and exceeded 22 out of 26 key targets, especially in social indicators. In 2025, GDP growth is expected to surpass 8%, higher than the previous period.
Maintaining key growth drivers, especially exports and investment
In the first 10 months, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue reached VND 5,772.9 trillion, up 9.3% (after excluding price factors of 7%). Total import–export turnover reached USD 762.44 billion, an increase of 17.4%; exports rose 16.2% and imports 18.6%, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 19.56 billion. The United States remained Vietnam’s largest export market, while China continued to be its largest source of imports. The number of EU warnings for Vietnamese agricultural products dropped by 50% compared with the same period last year. Vietnam is now among the countries with the least products subject to border controls – only four items remain on the list: durian, okra, bell pepper, and dragon fruit.
Public investment disbursement reached VND 464.828 trillion (51.7% of the Prime Minister’s plan), helping boost construction and creating spillover effects across manufacturing, materials, and logistics sectors. The Government implemented multiple support measures: tax and fee exemptions/reductions/deferrals, prioritizing banking liquidity, expanding credit for production and SMEs, and stimulating domestic consumption. As a result, total credit in the economy by the end of Q3 2025 increased by 13.37% compared with the end of last year, meeting rising capital needs for production and investment.
Inflation has been kept below 4%, major economic balances and social welfare have been maintained, and the investment environment continues to improve.
According to the General Statistics Office, the average CPI for the first 10 months rose 3.27%, with core inflation at 3.20%; gold prices surged 44%. State budget revenue exceeded the annual target (111%), while expenditures reached 71.2%. Vietnam ranked 44th out of 139 countries in innovation, with strong digital infrastructure development. Many long-delayed projects have been resolved, and 17% of budget spending is allocated to social welfare. The government apparatus has been streamlined, with significant reductions in staffing and recurrent expenditure; national defense and security have been strengthened.
In 2025, the economy achieved comprehensive results driven by public investment and exports, but several limitations remain: macroeconomic management is not yet fully stable, oversight of the real estate, gold, and corporate bond markets remains weak, input costs continue to rise, ODA disbursement is slow, bad debt in construction is high, and credit for production is difficult to access.
To achieve the growth target above 8.4%, the Government calls for accelerating public investment disbursement, channeling capital into production and business activities, supporting enterprises, expanding into new markets, and strengthening bad-debt resolution.
In 2026, Vietnam’s growth targets will continue to face significant pressures
The World Bank forecasts Vietnam’s GDP to grow 6.1% in 2026 and recover to 6.5% in 2027, with inflation is expected to ease to 3.7%. Exports are expected to continue rising thanks to a rebound in global trade, and the poverty rate is projected to fall to 3.4%.
The Government has set targets for 2026: GDP growth of 10% or higher, CPI around 4.5%, labor productivity up 8%, state budget revenue rising at least 10%, and development investment expenditure reaching 40%, while maintaining macroeconomic stability and streamlining the government apparatus.
However, Vietnam will face significant challenges in 2026: pressures on exports, consumption, and investment; rising essential goods prices; exchange-rate risks; volatile bond and gold markets; rapidly expanding credit that may affect asset quality; and potentially rising lending rates.
The World Bank warns that FDI inflows and the trade surplus may decline, and the banking system will need to strengthen resilience and liquidity. Vietnam must continue to uphold macro stability, enhance domestic capacity, develop foundational and emerging industries, promote growth-driving regions and financial centers, and resolve legal bottlenecks to unlock development resources.
